The Cochrane review behind the amputation figure, and the certainty attached to it is low
What it found
Lavery 2014, 40 participants, four weeks: NPWT at 75 mmHg against NPWT at 125 mmHg. No difference in wounds closed or covered with surgery (RR 0.83, 0.47 to 1.47) and none in adverse events (RR 1.50, 0.28 to 8.04), both very low certainty, and no data at all on healing, time to healing or amputation.
This wiki argues about pressure repeatedly, and this is the only randomised head-to-head it contains. It supports one sentence and no more: at these two settings, over four weeks, in forty people, no difference was demonstrated on the outcomes that were measured — and the primary outcomes were not measured. It is not evidence that 75 mmHg is as good as 125 mmHg. It is evidence that nobody has done the trial.
Limitations
- The healing benefit is partly a surgical-closure benefit awarded by unblinded clinicians. In Armstrong 2005, 12/77 (22%) NPWT wounds against 8/85 (9%) dressing wounds were classed as healed after closure surgery, and the review states plainly that there was no protocol rule and no blinded committee governing when to operate. Every healing and time-to-healing estimate on this page inherits that.
- All studies were at unclear risk of blinding bias. Only two of eleven were at low risk for allocation concealment (Armstrong 2005, Blume 2008); five did not describe sequence generation at all; Nain 2011 was at high risk for attrition.
- The two largest trials were funded by KCI, the manufacturer of V.A.C., and they carry the healing, time-to-healing and most of the amputation signal. Nine of the eleven trials did not report their funding source at all.
- Armstrong 2005's median healing times do not reconcile with its own Kaplan-Meier curve — the review records that the medians in the figure "seemed to be higher" than the 56 and 77 days reported. The familiar "21 days shorter" rests on that unreconciled pair.
- Three arithmetic and presentation defects. The text gives postoperative amputation denominators as 142 versus 145 where Analysis 1.3 totals 150; the foot-ulcer time-to-healing summary says 342 participants where the abstract and the trial say 341; and a single-study forest plot prints I² 100% on zero degrees of freedom.
- No publication-bias assessment anywhere, no comparison reaching ten trials — against a background the review itself cites of NPWT trials terminated or completed and never published.
- The search closed in January 2018. Every diabetic-foot RCT in this library from 2019 onward postdates it, and several large syntheses held here now pool more than twice as many trials.
- Off-loading, the single most important co-intervention in this disease, was inconsistently reported and could not be balance-checked across arms.
Appraisal and reference
CAT: OCEBM 1 · This is the certainty the review itself assigns, reproduced rather than re-derived, because its GRADE process is documented and its reasons are stated per outcome. FOOT ULCERS - proportion healed RR 1.40 (1.14 to 1.72), I squared 0%, 5 studies, 486 participants, LOW, downgraded ONCE for risk of bias (no blinded outcome assessment) and ONCE for imprecision (small samples, wide intervals). Time to healing HR 1.82 (1.27 to 2.60) from ONE study of 341, LOW, same two downgrades. AMPUTATION RR 0.33 (0.15 to 0.70), I squared 0%, 3 studies, 441 participants, LOW, downgraded ONCE for risk of bias and ONCE for imprecision - the denominator is 441 and the certainty is low, and both belong in any sentence that quotes the 0.33. Postoperative (post-amputation) wounds - proportion healed RR 1.44 (1.03 to 2.01) from ONE study of 162, LOW; time to healing HR 1.91 (1.21 to 2.99), median 21 days shorter, same single study, LOW; both downgraded once for risk of bias (some blinded outcome assessment, but the review could not judge the effect of non-blinded decisions about further surgery) and once for imprecision. Amputation in the postoperative comparison is a DIFFERENT and WEAKER result - RR 0.38 (0.14 to 1.02), 2 studies, 292 participants, VERY LOW, downgraded once for risk of bias and TWICE for imprecision because the interval spans appreciable benefit and appreciable harm. 75 mmHg VERSUS 125 mmHg - wounds closed or covered with surgery RR 0.83 (0.47 to 1.47) and adverse events RR 1.50 (0.28 to 8.04), ONE study of 40, VERY LOW, downgraded once for risk of bias and TWICE for very serious imprecision; there were NO DATA on healing, time to healing or amputation. Nothing was ever downgraded for inconsistency - every pooled estimate returned I squared 0%, and the largest single-comparison heterogeneity anywhere is I squared 28% for wounds closed or covered with surgery. Nothing was downgraded for publication bias either, and that is a gap rather than a clean bill: no comparison reached ten trials so no funnel plot was possible, and the review cites Peinemann 2008 on the large number of NPWT trials terminated or completed and never published. The structural limit on every estimate: healing counts include wounds closed by surgery at the discretion of clinicians who knew the allocation, with no protocol rule governing when to operate - 12/77 (22%) in the NPWT arm of Armstrong 2005 against 8/85 (9%) on dressings. The review says so twice and the wiki must say so too.
Figures: Figures checked